Old Summer Palace item from 1860 a Ming nine dragon Red lacquer and gild imperial carved Rosewood throne. Only available one from the set used for Grand Council Court thrones YongZheng Kangxi Qainlong and others in Qing dynasty.
This is a fascinating look inside the strategic debate in Beijing. But from the perspective of someone managing supply chains on the ground for 30 years, I believe the 'debate' is constrained by a much harsher reality: Physics.
No matter which faction wins the argument in Beijing, the economic thermodynamics remain the same: China has become a 'Deflationary Black Hole.'
Due to the 'Profit Pool Destruction' and massive industrial overcapacity (Entropy) I see every day in the factories, China must export deflation to survive. It physically needs the 'Inflationary West' to absorb this excess matter.
I call this 'The Great Bifurcation.' The world isn't decoupling; it's splitting into two symbiotic universes—one printing money (West), one printing goods (East).
The debates in Beijing are ultimately just arguing about how to manage this specific flow of energy. I explore this 'Endgame' scenario and why physics trumps geopolitics here:
Appreciate very much the useful effort to provide snapshots of what prominent members of (for lack of a better term) Chinese "policy circles" are presenting/spinning of late. I certainly concur that "what emerges is not ideological unanimity," but I wonder if, particularly within this group, there was ever anything approximating "previous certainties." I'm inclined to doubt that, say, Wang Jisi and Jin Canrong were ever on the same ideological, analytical and policy page.
In my limited and admittedly ancient experience, Jin Canrong never aimed to speak to an American audience in an effort to persuade. His motives and intended audience are quite different. Wang Jisi is, in Chinese terms, about the diametrical opposite from Prof Jin.
For my money (what little there is of it), retired Senior Colonel Zhou Bo might be the most effective pure propagandist/spinmeister for the Chinese view. His presentations, in fluent English no less, tend to be rather more sophisticated than those of his peers in this line of work. Don't know whether you caught the "Pekingnology" item this past March 29 laying out Zhou Bo's thinking in his new book "Should the World Fear China?" [See https://www.pekingnology.com/p/zhou-bo-on-should-the-world-fear].
All best for the holidays and Horse Year just ahead,
Interesting.
> neoliberal welfare
That sounds like a misunderstanding.
Also the "wasp culture" has died down in the 1960s ...
Old Summer Palace item from 1860 a Ming nine dragon Red lacquer and gild imperial carved Rosewood throne. Only available one from the set used for Grand Council Court thrones YongZheng Kangxi Qainlong and others in Qing dynasty.
This is a fascinating look inside the strategic debate in Beijing. But from the perspective of someone managing supply chains on the ground for 30 years, I believe the 'debate' is constrained by a much harsher reality: Physics.
No matter which faction wins the argument in Beijing, the economic thermodynamics remain the same: China has become a 'Deflationary Black Hole.'
Due to the 'Profit Pool Destruction' and massive industrial overcapacity (Entropy) I see every day in the factories, China must export deflation to survive. It physically needs the 'Inflationary West' to absorb this excess matter.
I call this 'The Great Bifurcation.' The world isn't decoupling; it's splitting into two symbiotic universes—one printing money (West), one printing goods (East).
The debates in Beijing are ultimately just arguing about how to manage this specific flow of energy. I explore this 'Endgame' scenario and why physics trumps geopolitics here:
[Further read 'The Great Bifurcation' article] https://open.substack.com/pub/chinarbitrageur/p/the-great-bifurcation-when-the-world?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer
Great analysis! Thanks
Hi, Philippa/David & "China Policy Team" --
Appreciate very much the useful effort to provide snapshots of what prominent members of (for lack of a better term) Chinese "policy circles" are presenting/spinning of late. I certainly concur that "what emerges is not ideological unanimity," but I wonder if, particularly within this group, there was ever anything approximating "previous certainties." I'm inclined to doubt that, say, Wang Jisi and Jin Canrong were ever on the same ideological, analytical and policy page.
In my limited and admittedly ancient experience, Jin Canrong never aimed to speak to an American audience in an effort to persuade. His motives and intended audience are quite different. Wang Jisi is, in Chinese terms, about the diametrical opposite from Prof Jin.
For my money (what little there is of it), retired Senior Colonel Zhou Bo might be the most effective pure propagandist/spinmeister for the Chinese view. His presentations, in fluent English no less, tend to be rather more sophisticated than those of his peers in this line of work. Don't know whether you caught the "Pekingnology" item this past March 29 laying out Zhou Bo's thinking in his new book "Should the World Fear China?" [See https://www.pekingnology.com/p/zhou-bo-on-should-the-world-fear].
All best for the holidays and Horse Year just ahead,
Don