june: open alone
month in focus
Warm welcome all…
We say ‘open alone’ because for many WTO members, Beijing’s so-called ‘opening’ moves—long anticipated since its WTO accession in 2001—may appear too little, too late.
For Beijing, all are, nonetheless, welcome on board.
But with the PRC’s long-term trade future now tilting towards the Global South, how it explores and develops alternative trade frameworks while maintaining its role in the existing order is the balancing act to watch.
Happy reading
Philippa
managing editor
financial opening bright spot
Manufacturing activity is again expanding. Clambering back over 50 (neutrality), PMI recovered 2.1 points from contraction in May. Production and new orders signalled respite from headline tensions. Yet export orders and jobs continue to fall, while firms scale back purchases and factory gate prices, prone to cutthroat competition, hit a five-month low.
Property prices fell across all city tiers in May, with established homes dropping 0.50 percent m-o-m compared to 0.22 percent for new builds, marking the largest monthly drops of 2025. The deterioration signals fading impact of policies rolled out following the Politburo's September 2024 directive to 'return the real estate market from decline to stability'.
Pan Gongsheng, 潘功胜 People's Bank of China governor, announced eight measures to advance Shanghai's financial opening at the Liujiazui Forum in June, including a digital RMB international operations centre, and offshore trade finance pilots in Lingang New Area.
Hong Kong's cross-border payment connect meanwhile launched on 22 June, offering instant settlement for retail consumers, and filing 25,900 transactions on its first day. It will expand to handle major corporate flows and boost Hong Kong as a hub for offshore RMB transactions.
trade misses forecasts
Hit by tariffs, PRC trade missed forecasts in May. Exports rose 4.8, imports plunged 3.4 percent y-o-y. Shipments to the US fell 34.5 percent in 2024, imports dropped 18.
Beijing and Washington sought a truce at talks in London on 10 June. They pledged to roll back hostile measures: uppermost being PRC critical minerals controls and US high-tech/student visa sanctions; 55 percent US and ten percent PRC tariffs remain.
Still sceptical about the details and endgame of the supposed ‘deal’, markets brace for upcoming uncertainty when the 90-day US tariff pause expires on 9 July. Given aggressive US decoupling, cooperation becomes extremely difficult, comments Tu Xinquan 屠新泉 University of International Business and Economics WTO Research Institute. He suggests instead to pivot to a ‘risk management approach’ with the US.
Grab this chance to build investment with other blocs like the EU, urges Yu Miaojie 余淼杰 Liaoning University president. But EU relations are also rocky; Brussels skipped a crucial meeting with Beijing due to trade tensions, and the July summit arrangements are not going well. Beijing extended anti-dumping probes for some EU pork products, citing the complexity of the case.
For all the turbulence, Beijing proclaims its globalist credentials under the rubric of 'unilateral opening:’ expanding access with no ‘reciprocal' demands. BRI and RCEP would be key avenues for this, notes Wei Jianguo 魏建国 China Centre for International Economic Exchanges. Beijing would, adds Wei, step up aligning with international rules, expanding cultural exchange and further opening the services sector.
This leaning was on show in June 2025 policy moves
State Council executive meeting promoting Shanghai FTZ pilot measures nationwide
MofCOM
streamlining some reporting requirements for foreign firms’ PRC investment
launching a reporting pilot to better grasp their problems and needs
offering tax incentives for foreign firms reinvesting profits in the PRC
Other notable trade moves in June
conditional resumption of some Japanese seafood imports
renewal of anti-dumping measures for
stainless steel products from the EU, UK, South Korea and Indonesia
imported EU toluidine
‘two-step declaration’ clearance pilots rolled out at all customs entries
given importers first declare essential information, expedite cargo release, completing declarations late
‘not-yet-profitable’ scitech IPOs
Support was unveiled for IPOs by firms whose tech is ‘not-yet-profitable’. The CSRC set up a dedicated ’scitech growth’ section on the STAR market, with more sectors eligible: biotech, AI, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy. Similar reforms were rolled out in 2024, but high barriers remain, starving tech startups.
New state data sharing regs are to ease red tape in data silos. Forbidding agencies to restrict data sharing may improve business access to public data; yet, red tape has already pushed grassroots cadres into conservative stances.
Stablecoin laws enacted by Hong Kong set off a rush for shares in firms that now hold issuing licenses: Guotai Jun'an stock surged some 200 percent on 25 June. But is this yet another speculative bubble? Means of payment in cross-border deals, pegged to conventional currencies, stablecoins cannot be expected to appreciate.
major hydrogen pilot
New measures on GPDS (green power direct supply) were issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration to develop renewables and ease compliance for exporters with green trade rules. Firms generating renewables will connect with independent users directly for physical traceability of green power, while easing suspicions of ‘greenwashing’. GPDS offers a path forward, proclaims Chen Dayu 陈大宇 Huaneng Group Energy Research Institute, for decentralised, traceable and market-integrated green power.
A major hydrogen energy pilot launched by NEA will cover production, transport, storage and end-use application of hydrogen nationally. The point is to promote innovative management, development pathways and ‘scalable’ experiences throughout the chain.
Beijing lands first direct soy shipment
Control has tightened over soybean imports, with rules drafted overhauling inspection, delivery and traceability in futures contracts. Warehouse standards, transport oversight and customs coordination see upgrades. A direct shipment from Brazil bypassed intermediaries (i.e Bunge, Louis Dryfus), reinforcing state-linked supply; Argentina was back in the soymeal market with a trial shipment.
A new digital transformation plan for the food industry wields AI, blockchain and traceability to reshape supply chains and consumer trust. Targets include 80 percent digital management by 2027, new smart factories, parks and demo projects. Consistent uptake by SMEs, however, faces cost, skills and interoperability barriers.
A fourth national agricultural census has launched, its full rollout scheduled for 2026. Early findings will guide mid-15th 5-year plan adjustments, but real tests await, in data quality and local follow-through.
national climate standards
Research is underway on carbon footprint factors for fossil fuels and the transport sector, Ministry of Ecology and Environment told a State Council Information Office press conference. With the National Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry is developing an emissions factor database, version 1.0 of which appeared in January 2025.
Foreshadowed on 2 June, national standards to combat climate change are to cover foundational support (identifying greenhouse gases), mitigation and adaptation.
Ecological compensation for such major rivers as the Yangtze and Yellow are to roll out by 2027, states MoF (Ministry of Finance). Central authorities will coordinate, keeping it affordable for localities. All major basins and tributaries are promised coverage by 2035.
gearing up for 15th 5-year plan
With the 15th 5-year plan period impending, localities were placed on notice to balance top-level design with local conditions. Empowering sci-tech reform with private participation was a hot topic in satellite party and CPPCC meetings. Easing innovation costs was likewise to the fore in the latter’s National Standing Committee. State reforms followed suit: to stabilise market confidence, State Council delivered better credit repairment as pledged. While less bullish than the tech zealots, voices are still heard stressing livelihood-centred planning.
state funds graduate jobs
The National Medical Products Administration hopes that cutting clinical trial approvals from 60 to 30 days will boost pharma innovation. Aligning with global standards will intensify scrutiny of trial institutions. Meanwhile, following fraud scandals, the National Healthcare Security Administration tightened inspections for hospitals joining or exiting the national medical insurance scheme.
For the aging population, MIIT launched pilot programs for intelligent aged-care service robots, dispensing disability care and companionship, also promoting smart health monitoring devices and wearable tech.
Supporting jobs and social services, State Council Opinions expand social security coverage. MoHRSS will fund some 35,000 graduates for community jobs in health and education. A ‘Disability employment action plan’ and’ Opinions on developing interdisciplinary skilled workers for medical prevention/control’ were issued by the State Council and the NHC, respectively.
Wang Yi: Russian defeat would shift US pressure to China
Visiting Brussels and France, Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Belgian leaders, co-chairing a PRC-France high-level dialogue on people-to-people exchanges. In a marathon four-hour meeting with Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Wang is alleged to have said that Beijing cannot allow Russia to lose in Ukraine because it would shift US strategic focus from Europe to confronting China. Neither side reported the remarks.
Condemning US strikes on Iran and Israel’s actions, Beijing positioned itself as mediator, urging de-escalation and engaging with both Iran and Israel. Support for Iran remained primarily economic; think-tank commentary spoke dismissively of Iran’s diplomatic and security credentials.
Other events included Singapore PM Lawrence Wong’s visit to Beijing, 22–26 June. Wong spoke of growing PRC-Singapore relations, since 2023 deemed an ‘all-round high-quality future-oriented partnership’.
A second China-Central Asia Summit saw Xi boosting China-Central Asia prospects, addressing mutual interests and regional stability with the usual enigmatic consequences for war-torn Russia.
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa visited the PRC for the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Tianjin, 24–26 June). The ‘Summer Davos’ provides global elites with great networking and a platform for visionary discussions, but tends to yield few tangible results.
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