demographic waves hit education—what is shifting?
school students to fall 25 percent over 2021–35
kindergartens lay off teachers; high schools need more
‘super high schools’ hurt education quality
PRC education faces a dual test
uneven falls in primary school enrolment
rising demand for high school places
The school-age population is projected to plunge from 328 million to some 250 million between 2021 and 2035, according to the 2020 Seventh National Census. ’Wave-like’ reductions are seen across educational stages. School-age populations for primary, middle and high school will peak in 2023, 2026 and 2029, respectively, followed by a sharp and sustained decline, forecasts Xiong Bingqi 熊丙奇 21st Century Education Research Institute.
rural vs urban
‘Empty villages, crowded cities’ is the prevailing population pattern that carries through to K–12 students. The migrant population rose 70 percent from 2010–20, with one in every four people being a migrant. In the 46,500 urban schools, according to MoE 2023 statistics, classes average 45, even as many as 50-60 students, well over capacity. Yet rural schools have the opposite problem. Among 83,000 schools, classes average less than 29 students. With population decline made worse by migration trends, urban and rural schools are both suffering vicious cycles amidst demographic shifts.
east vs west
Economically developed eastern regions lure people from the less developed west. Once again, researchers predict that large cities like Beijing will need more teachers in the near future, but fewer in the long run.
Western regions, however, experienced a 8.5 percent fall in pre-school education enrolment numbers, from 2019–23, based on MoE data. Plans to merge and cancel schools usually lag behind actual population movement, leading to large-scale wastage of educational and financial resources, notes Jiang Zhaohui 姜朝辉 and Li Yang 李洋 National Institute for Educational Sciences.
kindergartens hit first
Similar to the 一老一小问题 (aged care and childcare issues), resource scarcity in education shows up at the two extremes of the demographic spectrum. Kindergartens declined for the first time in 2022, with enrolments some 4 percent lower. 2024 saw a decrease of 21,100 kindergartens over 2023, reports MoE—the most drastic drop in a year.
Private and rural kindergartens felt the impact of declining birth rates earliest. More resilient, public kindergartens were nonetheless impacted. Previously, they enrolled from local zones or children with local household registration (hukou); it is now irrelevant: any age-qualified child can enrol.
On current trends, kindergarten enrolments may be half of the 2020 peak of 48 million children by 2030, predicts Yiyang Education Research Institute 奕阳教育研究院. The total number of kindergartens nationwide may fall below 164,000, a reduction of some 130,000 from the 2021 peak of 294,800, a decrease of 45 percent.
primary schools hit second
No school will be spared from this demographic shift. Primary school enrolments have kept falling, leaving staff in surplus. Intake dropped to 16.17 million students in 2024, reports MoE, down over 2.61 million from 2023. Primary schools fell by 7,200 to 136,300 nationwide. The problem is not going away, warns Chen Zhiwen 陈志文, China Society of Education Development Strategy Academic Committee. It is only hurting lower primary teachers now, but it will soon spread to all primary levels and eventually to secondary and high schools.
teachers displacement
Mass kindergarten closures forced mass teacher layoffs. The PRC had some 3 million full-time kindergarten teachers in 2024, a decrease of 241,800 from 2023. Over 600 teachers leave their positions every day. Unemployed kindergarten teachers often took up livestreaming or marketing or remained unemployed.
Primary school teachers face a similar risk. Some 1.5 million primary teachers will be ‘in excess’ by 2035, forecasts Beijing Normal University. Meanwhile, children born after the 2016 baby boom will reach Year 11 in 2032, presenting high schools with serious teacher shortages. This shift pushes primary school teachers to either upskill to teach high school or be forced to transfer to admin roles in remote schools.
‘super high schools’
Current PRC standard class sizes are 45 (primary) and 50 (secondary)—well over OECD averages of 21 and 23. Should classes not be smaller? The idea is not novel, but the reality is bleak. Due to high maintenance costs and sparse local government funding, schools with few students have closed down, pushing more students into urban ‘super high schools’ (超级中学).
With student enrolments ranging from 5-6,000 to over 10,000, these (usually private or public-private joint venture) mega high schools have been emerging rapidly since the 2010s. Infamous for syphoning high-achieving students and using military style management to ‘guarantee’ higher grades, these high schools are usually favoured by school principals and local governments due to large scale, high revenue generation, and relatively good gaokao (university entry exam) results. Despite facing criticism of polarising education resources and ‘inhumane’ education style from MoE and education experts, many ‘super high schools’ survived due to high demand.
Falling births exacerbate the situation. With ever fewer enrolments in county high schools, parents move to larger centres, needing more schools. Shandong’s No. 22 High School went viral for its massive size: the school has 94 classes per grade level, with 64 students in each class.
This phenomenon demonstrates that school planning has not kept pace with growing population inflows, said Wang Feng 王烽 National Institute of Education Sciences. MoE imposes no upper limits on the scale of school building, yet problems arise when per-student standards are exceeded.
finding new directions
Given declining birth rates and the growing aged cohort, schools at all levels must redirect their development. With nearly 60 percent of high school students attending county high schools, addressing county education quality becomes urgent; hence, an action plan to invigorate county high schools was issued on 26 September. The point is to align resource allocation with demographic change, giving less weight to grades and admissions.
NHC forecasts the PRC 60+ population to exceed 30 percent by 2035, triggering demand for lifelong education and aged care. New ’aged care and childcare integration’ models are being explored, merging aged and childcare. Offering care and intergenerational learning and interaction in shared spaces, they seek to ease family responsibilities for both young and elderly.
Experts warn, however, that caution is needed, together with better management and urgent training of ‘care + childcare’ hybrid staffing. Meanwhile, for all the promise of ‘county high school revitalisation’, parents fear education suffering under relentless equality-driven reform.
educationalists
Xiong Bingqi 熊丙奇 | 21st Century Education Research Institute deputy director
Declining birth rates primarily reduce enrolment, sequentially impacting kindergartens, primary schools, secondary schools, and universities. Rural schools, vocational institutions, and private schools face the greatest recruitment challenges, a situation worsened by rising population mobility, amplifying the ‘Matthew effect.’ With these demographic shifts, PRCChina’s educational focus has moved from quantity to quality—ensuring equitable access to high-quality resources and addressing diverse learning needs.
A Deputy Director of the 21st Century Education Research Institute, Xiong, urges aligning education with evolving social needs, not least in light of tech advancement and demographic change. He writes extensively on educational reform, vocational education, and societal development.
Wu Ruijun 吴瑞君 | 14th CPPCC National Committee, East China Normal University Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences dean
Education policy must balance efficiency, fairness, and adaptability. Student needs should drive staffing, addressing mismatches via dynamic allocation: growth areas are often understaffed, yet declining regions retain vacancies. To ensure fairness, more posts should be directed to rural, small, and indigenous community schools, mixing and matching class-to-teacher and student-to-teacher ratios.
Yet staffing is inseparable from budget constraints: localities are typically hesitant to raise headcounts; flexible employment tends to be misused as a cost-cutting tool, creating unfair pay gaps among teachers. One-size-fits-all standards fail to reflect gaps between urban and rural schools: frameworks are needed that set minimum standards while allowing flexibility. Hierarchies created by disparate employment categories weaken teachers’ professional identities, hindering deeper reforms.
Hailing from Yuyao, Zhejiang, Wu holds an LLD from the Population Research Institute of East China Normal University. Starting work in July 1988, she joined the Peasants and Workers Party a decade later. Now on the 14th CPPCC National Committee, she assists ECNU’s President and dean of the Academy of Humanities and Social Sciences (College of Arts).